An iPhone 14, which the next generation of iPhone SE is said to be based on.
Investment bank Morgan Stanley says Apple is not cutting orders for the iPhone 16 range — and that it will be the iPhone SE 4 that makes Apple Intelligence take off.
Morgan Stanley has previously told investors that the sales of the iPhone 16 have been lower than expected. Now, though, while iPhone 16 lead times are still shorter than at this time for the iPhone 15 range, the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max appear to be selling better.
This is chiefly based on the lead times quoted by Apple, and Apple does not release any details about the numbers of iPhones either sold or produced. In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, though, Morgan Stanley says it believes that better supply conditions are contributing to the shorter lead times.
iPhone lead-time delays (Source: Morgan Stanley)
Its own supply chain checks show no change in the orders for iPhone 16 models. However, the expected iPhone SE 4 is “increasingly showing signs of being a volume play for 2025.”
In other words, Morgan Stanley expects the iPhone SE 4 to be released in March 2025, and to benefit from supporting Apple Intelligence. This will make the new iPhone, say the analysts, “a more compelling offer than most legacy iPhone models that don’t have Apple Intelligence support and/or sell for a higher price.”
Morgan Stanley believes that the iPhone SE 4 will be how Apple sells to what the analysts describe as the low-end smartphone market. The analysts had previously predicted Apple to make and sell 15 million of the iPhone SE 4, but it is now forecasting between 15 million and 20 million.
This depends on the iPhone SE 4 supporting Apple Intelligence. But Morgan Stanley believes that it will, which backs up recent rumors about the device.